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If the geologic model of a deposit cannot be reliably forecast, then there will be lower confidence in many of the modifying factors (which include mining, processing, environmental, social, governmental, and economic factors that influence the conversion of identified mineral resources into economic reserves).
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"This book is a significant contribution to the exploration of the basic issues and constitutes an important addition to the technical literature addressing uncertainty." Joseph Fragola, IEEE Spectrum "Uncertainty is a risk analysis textbook that Granger Morgan and Max Henrion have written to serve as a basic text for students as well as a ...
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This probabilistic approach makes @RISK a powerful tool that you can use to judge which risks to take and which ones to avoid—critical insight in today's uncertain world. Works with Microsoft Excel Avoid Pitfalls and Uncover Opportunities with Risk Analysis Plan Better Strategies Model Risk Factors and Protect Yourself with Contingency Planning
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In England and Wales, it was important for manorial rights (which includes rights to: fish, shoot, hunt and mine minerals) to be registered at Land Registry by midnight on 12th October 2013 if they were to continue as legally binding rights. Manorial rights were the rights retained by the Lord of the Manor when the land became freehold.
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Abstract Seminal work argues that electric utilities sign long-term contracts with coal suppliers prior to making relationship-specific investments in order to avoid the possibility of ex post hold-up. This paper provides empirical evidence that risk aversion also plays an important role in the coal contracting behavior of US power plants. Specifically, I show that plants facing more spot coal ...
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Jul 23, 2021This is just one form of uncertainty associated with determining resources and future supply of critical elements; actually classifying what substances are critical, although as outlined below a gradual consensus seems to be emerging. . ).
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The results show that the new hybrid fuzzy-probabilistic methodology can be applied in systematizing the arguing and measuring the probability of success of a petroleum accumulation discovery. Petroleum exploration is an economical activity where many billions of dollars are invested every year. Despite these enormous investments, it is still considered a classical example of decision-making ...
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The British Columbia Mineral and Coal Exploration Survey is a joint initiative between the ... our clients capitalize on new opportunities and assess and manage risk to deliver responsible growth. Our high-performing, multidisciplinary teams help them fulfill ... Industries, including exploration, faced uncertainty as travel restrictions and ...
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Abstract. Demand and reserve uncertainty are included in a simple model of an exhaustible resource market by allowing the demand function and the reserve level to fluctuate via continuous-time stochastic processes. Thus, producers always know current demand and reserves but do not know what demand and reserves will be in the future. I show that ...
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The latest annual British Columbia Mineral and Coal Exploration Survey finds that exploration spend across the province increased by 28% year-over-year to $422m. I n 2020, the global economy came to a screeching halt as the COVID-19 pandemic rapidly spread across the globe. The pandemic created a public health crisis for humanity, crippling ...
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Before coming to Cornell, Karin was Director of the Advanced Mineralogy Research Center at Colorado School of Mines, developing new applications in quantitative mineralogy for minerals, energy, environmental and planetary science. She is a consultant in geomet and has worked and lectured in Southern Africa, Australia and the Americas.
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The relationship between risk and decisions under uncertainty will be examined as a prelude to identifying those factors which contribute to exploration risks: consideration of the effects of corporate objectives (e.g. survival, expansion, diversification) on exploration strategy and ultimately on success or failure, exploration and mining as an...
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This is because increased interconnectedness of ecological, social, and economic systems, nonlinear dynamics, and the uncertainty of ecological change, render the causes and effects of crises more difficult to understand and assess. Existing institutions therefore often struggle with the governance of such complex transboundary crises.
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Abstract and Figures Successful mineral exploration strategy requires identification of some of the risk sources and considering them in the decision-making process so that controllable risk can be...
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Forty weather disasters in 2019 caused damages exceeding $1 billion each—and in recent years, the economic toll caused by the most extreme events has been escalating. 1 As a new multipolar world takes shape, we are seeing more trade disputes, higher tariffs, and broader geopolitical uncertainty.
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Risk and Uncertainty in Mineral Exploration: Implications for Valuing Mineral Exploration Properties. The AIG Quarterly Newsletter, 100, 20-27. Lord D, Etheridge M and Uttley P, 2003.
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The critical minerals and elements are natural substances that are essential to modern life but have insecure supply. This lack of a secure supply clashes with the increasing importance of these elements, especially given their use in technologies needed to reduce global CO 2 emissions and mitigate against anthropogenic climate change. In this contribution we review the by-product nature of ...
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Risk and uncertainty in mineral exploration: implications for valuing mineral exploration properties. OP Kreuzer, MA Etheridge. AIG News 100, 20-28, 2010. 41: 2010: Particle swarm optimization algorithm for neuro-fuzzy prospectivity analysis using continuously weighted spatial exploration data.
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Every exploration prospect and mining asset is unique in its origin and therefore has unique technical risks. The independent specialist must report these unique technical risks and any impact on production or planned diversion from the technical fundamentals needed to mitigate these risks.
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• Risk and Uncertainty in Mineral "Australian resource companies are, by and large, public companies owned by shareholders, Exploration: Implications for either directly or through managed investments, including superannuation".
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Currently underutilized in mineral exploration, the application of statistical and mathematical concepts will help steer exploration geoscientists towards a better understanding of the complex geological processes critical in the formation of mineral deposits and, ultimately, improved exploration success rates.
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One of the key proposals for supporting critical minerals projects in Canada is the new 30% Critical Mineral Exploration Tax Credit for specified minerals consumed in the production of batteries and permanent magnets used in zero-emission vehicles, or in the production and processing of advanced materials, clean technology, or semi-conductors.
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Amid dwindling mineral reserves, regulatory uncertainty and labour unrest, the industry's GDP contribution has been in decline for a number of years. To encourage investment, the government introduced a new tax incentive in 2009, triggering a "flurry of capital from the private sector", Jonty Sacks, a partner at financial consultancy firm ...
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exploration puzzle. Minerals, like all resources, are made in processes where the 'natural' and the 'social' are tied together in order to create products of value (Ferry and Limbert 2008, p. 4). In mak-ing ores - that is, in identifying economically exploitable sections of mineral deposits - exploration-
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Mar 16, 2022In mineral exploration, airborne and surface geophysical data may provide indications of subsurface magnetic, electrical resistivity or density anomalies, but, in the end, drilling needs to confirm the composition of the subsurface as indicator of a resource. Drilling, however, is expensive; hence, optimizing borehole locations is important.
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Errors and Uncertainty in Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve Estimation: The Importance of Getting it Right S. Dominy, M. Noppé, A. Annels Published 2002 Geology Exploration and Mining Geology Mineral Resources and their subsequent conversion to Ore Reserves are of key importance to mining companies.
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The committee established parameters regarding a mineral's importance in use and availability (supply risk) to apply the criticality matrix to 11 minerals or mineral groups: copper, gallium, indium, lithium, manganese, niobium, platinum group metals (PGMs), rare earth elements (REs), tantalum, titanium, and vanadium.
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Entities wishing to undertake mineral exploration, mining or related activities on Commonwealth land apply to the Department of Finance and try to negotiate a deed of access before presenting the proposal to the Governor General for approval. Australia's enviable mining and mineral exploration industry is considered to have low sovereign risk,
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Observation 2
Mineral exploration is a business bedeviled by uncertainty
Yet, many of our outputs and decision-making processes imply a level of confidence that is simply unrealistic
For effective, formal risk management to take place we have to estimate, measure or calculate geological uncertainties
Decision analysis ...
Selected Publications. Chudasama, B., Porwal, A.K., Kreuzer, O.P., and Butera, K., 2016: Geology, geodynamics and orogenic gold prospectivity modelling of the ...
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Sep 16, 2021In summary, mineral exploration is recognised as a complex, non-linear process [ 26] and although advances in AI and technology present significant opportunities to improve the quality of exploration targeting, the combination of technology and human creativity are considered key to realising long-term, recurring success [ 10 ]. 1.5.
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while the key asset for the minerals sector is the un-mined mineralisation associated with the any can only be released if exploration is able to identify ficiently and this involves consideration of grade control procedures and the approach al reconciliation from bock estimates of in situ grades through mining dilution, determination of head .
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Ben Gilbert, Alexander James and Jason F. Shogren, "Corporate Apology for Environmental Damage", Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, vol. 56, issue 1, 2018, pp. 51 - 81. Morgan D. Bazilian, "The Mineral Foundation of the Energy Transition", The Extractive Industries and Society, 5(1), 2018, pp. 93 - 97.
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disincentive to efficient exploration, development, recovery, and marketing of natural gas. I. THE ISSUE Gas royalties provide the lessor with an instrument for capturing economic rent and with a means of sharing economic uncertainty and geologic risk with the lessee.1 The lessor (or royalty owner), however, has
Get priceIntroduction. Critical minerals and elements are natural substances that provide essential properties to a technology or product, are not easily substituted, are generally not recycled or are recycled at low levels, and are subject to supply-chain risk as a result of a variety of factors (e.g., Graedel et al., 2014).They are vital to green energy and low- and zero-CO 2 technologies, such as ...
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Downloadable (with restrictions)! Although the "real option valuation" (ROV) methodology offers extremely valuable insights in optimising investment decisions in the face of uncertainty, its practical acceptance in the mining industry has until recently been slow because of its perceived computational complexity. Recent conceptual advances in the use of binomial lattices and software ...
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Technical due diligence is the review by independent experts of the geological, mining, metallurgical and environmental technical parameters of an asset for investment, merger or acquisition purposes. Its results will clearly, concisely and effectively define the relevant technical risks of the asset whilst providing a realistic basis for a ...
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The composition of exploration activity varies with mineral prices. In recent years during a period of relatively high mineral prices, exploration by small exploration companies (termed "juniors") in riskier and more remote locations has increased proportionately more than exploration by larger and more established mining companies.
Get pricethe value of building in the flexibility to manage uncertainty and risk at any level or aspect of an exploration or mining venture. Fig. 1 summarizes a comparison between a tradi-tional valuation method that does not account for uncertainty A82 Moving forward from traditional optimization: grade uncertainty and risk effects in open-pit design
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An introduction to the application of statistical decision analysis concepts to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in petroleum exploration investment decisions is provided in this book. Topics covered represent a composite of current attitudes and practices throughout the world for analyzing drilling prospects, as well as several new ideas ...
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